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Photo: Published by Haaretz
The scene of the explosion in Tel Aviv on Sunday. Credit: Moti Milrod

Military vehicles in Tubas in the West Bank, last week. Credit: AFP
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Hamas sees the many proposals for a deal as a trap in which the U.S. adopts Israel's position of refusing to end the war and withdrawing from the Gaza Strip

by Jack Khoury
Aug 20, 2024 5:04 pm IDT

The explosion in Tel Aviv on Sunday, followed by Hamas and Islamic Jihad claiming responsibility for the attempted suicide attack, has revived an almost-forgotten emotion: the fear of suicide attacks deep in the heart of Israel.

The nightmare scenario is a grim memory from the 1990s and the second intifada. Although this attempt failed, the issue hasn't disappeared. The question is whether these groups have the operational capability to bring suicide attacks back to center stage.

The urgency of this question becomes even more acute when considering the situation in the West Bank, where levels of anger and frustration are only rising. Israel's ramped up operations in Palestinian cities and villages and settler rampages against locals are pouring more fuel on the fire. Their combination doesn't just lead to despair but also creates fertile ground for recruiting suicide bombers.

The timing of the attempted attack is notable: during heightened diplomatic efforts to secure a cease-fire in Gaza. The blast occurred just between talks in Doha and in Cairo and just before U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel.

What would have happened had the suicide attack been successful? How would the current Israeli government have responded? How would it have impacted the hostage deal negotiations? Fortunately, there's no need to answer these questions, but it's not at all certain that they'll vanish entirely.

From the Palestinian perspective, and even more that of Hamas and of Islamic Jihad, the message is clear. They're signaling that they won't let Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's continued delaying and obstruction of a deal go without a response.

They are saying the conflict will transform and escalate – if not in Gaza, then within Israel, and suicide attacks will become an option again. In a way, it's a different type of "uniting the fronts." The idea is that what happens in Gaza impacts the West Bank, and what Palestinians experience in the West Bank will impact Israel's major cities.

The timing is worth noting in another respect, too. For Hamas, it's about not just what's happened in the past few days, but also what hasn't happened. The feeble international pressure is barely changing anything (including pressure from Arab countries). It's given up on the United Nations. It doesn't hang much hope on the International Criminal Court, either. Gaza has been devastated and unsuitable for habitation.

Hamas' leader, Yahya Sinwar, has two main cards left that could be seen as a carrot and stick. First, he has the hostages, whose release will require that Israel release prisoners, end the war and withdraw its forces. Second, he has guerilla warfare in Gaza, efforts to ignite the West Bank and revenge attacks inside Israel.

Hamas sees the many shifting proposals by the mediators as a trap that only contains changing conditions. They all offer a graduated, temporary cease-fire, with an option to return to combat after the first stage. According to Hamas, all these conditions mean one thing: that the U.S. is adopting Israel's position. There is no fundamental commitment to an end of the war and a full withdrawal in these proposals, while there is vetoing of over more than 100 prisoners, among them "senior" members of the groups.

Therefore, over the past couple of days, Hamas deliberately leaked details of the U.S. proposal. The major point was postponing discussion on ending the war until the end of the deal's first stage. There is also a lack of a clear commitment by Israel to withdraw from the Philadelphi corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border and to establish a monitoring mechanism along the Netzarim corridor bisecting Gaza. It includes Israel's demand to exile dozens of prisoners and to veto the release of dozens of others.

Hamas officials perceive that Washington is interested in a deal that could yield quiet until the November elections and that it wants to "check the box" on released hostages – the elderly, women, children and perhaps some female soldiers (in exchange for a limited number of prisoners). They say they believe that the U.S. is less concerned about the second stage.

The officials say they think that the second stage is being treated with little importance by Israel, too even though it would lead to the release of hostage soldiers and bodies. Officials in Gaza say they are convinced that the Israelis see the kidnapped soldiers and the bodies as part of the price of the war.

Thus, Hamas' real war is over the first stage, with the expectation that it will be the only one. If it fails, it will have nothing to lose, and like Samson, it will bring down the temple on everyone, including the hostages.